Drouthy Days: is Scotland prepared for drought?

The article explores the current situation, key impacts and Scotland’s preparedness for managing potential drought conditions and has been jointly written by members of the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe):

• Damon Davies, Researcher, SPICe
• Alasdair Reid, Senior Researcher, SPICe
• Euan Ross, Senior Researcher, SPICe
• Dr Elizabeth Lawson, SPICe Academic Fellow (Newcastle University)

SPICe researchers produce detailed, impartial briefings covering subjects of interest to the Scottish Parliament and provide impartial, factual, accurate information and analysis to Members in support of Scottish Parliament parliamentary business.

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Scotland has been experiencing a prolonged period of dry weather along with much of the UK. This blog explores the current situation, key impacts and Scotland’s preparedness for managing potential drought conditions.

What is causing the dry weather and how exceptional is this spell?

The Met Office explains that the main reason for the dry weather is “a persistent area of high pressure that’s been dominating our skies since the end of February” this high pressure “suppresses cloud formation and keeps rain at bay”.

It further explains that the current system has become what meteorologists call a “blocking high” which is a stationary pattern that prevents other weather systems from moving in.  The jet stream, which typically guides these systems, has taken a more northerly path, allowing high pressure to dominate.

This dry weather has been exceptional when compared to average conditions for this time of year and long-term records. For example:

• Scotland recorded its second sunniest April on record and the sunniest since records began in 1910 for the whole of the UK.
• Scotland along with all four UK nations recorded their third warmest April since records began in 1884.
• The UK’s mean temperature for April was 9.6°C, 1.7°C above the long-term average.

These dry spring conditions have contributed to low river and groundwater levels, prompting SEPA to issue water scarcity warnings (when the water supply becomes insufficient for demand).

For example, SEPA’s latest Water Scarcity report issued 15 May highlights:

• Groundwater levels, were the lowest April average level on record for Fife and Angus, with Newton of Falkland at its lowest level for this time of year in its 28-year record.
• Flows in the river Dee in Aberdeenshire have only once before in a 97-year record been so low so early in the year.

The foundation for these problems were laid by a drier than average autumn and winter in many parts of Scotland. SEPA’s 2025 winter water situation report warned of increased risk of water scarcity in spring and summer. It highlighted:

• The fifth driest autumn in 100 years according to the Met Office.
• Central and south Scotland experienced below average rainfall for several months with Dundee experiencing nine months of below average rainfall.
• The far north of Scotland recorded very low rainfall, with Orkney seeing just 34% of its average, Sutherland 37% and Shetland 40%.

In the Highlands, a lack of snow resulted in just over 20 avalanche reports by February 2025 compared to around 100-150 in a typical winter.

What are the Impacts on Scotland’s water resources?

Responding to the conditions, Scottish Water has urged its customers to use water “as efficiently as possible in homes and gardens” in response to the “driest start to the year across Scotland since 1964”.

Scottish Water has responded to higher demand by increasing the amount of water into the public water network by 150 million litres of water per day from mid-April which it explains is equivalent to amount of water needed to serve much of the population of the Greater Glasgow area with water every day. This has led to reservoir levels being 10% lower than average for this time of year.

Scottish Water’s Chief Executive commented:

“Scotland’s climate is clearly changing and, as a country, we need to ensure we adapt both by investing appropriately in water infrastructure – which Scottish Water is doing – and ensuring we do what we can to use water more efficiently in our homes and businesses.”

Reducing water consumption and efficient management of water is a key challenge facing Scotland’s water industry. A 2023 report by Consumer Scotland highlighted that water use in Scotland is higher than in other parts of the UK and Europe, with the average person using over 180 litres of tap water every day.

A recent BBC article highlights a cultural assumption of abundant supply, and that only a small number of Scottish households have water meters – which can contribute to a lack of awareness of water use.

Consumer Scotland notes:

“a cultural shift towards a common acceptance of the value, and the finite nature, of water in Scotland is necessary for consumers to be engaged in a move towards more sustainable consumption of water”.

What about households on private water supplies?

Around 3.5% of the Scottish population are not connected to Scottish Water’s network and use a private water supply. This equates to 23,034 supplies which serve just over 190,000 people, mostly in rural and island communities. The Drinking Water Quality Regulator (DWQR) state that this figure however, does not take into account the large numbers of people such as visitors and
tourists who may use premises with a private water supply.

Local Authority environmental health departments are responsible for providing support if private water supply users experience disruption in their supply.

Some Local Authorities have issued warnings in response to the current dry conditions providing advice to private water supply users. This includes information about the Emergency Bottled Water Scheme which may provide consumers of domestic properties who are eligible, a temporary supply of free bottled water.

The Scottish Government provides funding to local authorities to deliver the Private Water Supply Grant Scheme which offers up to £800 to eligible households and businesses to improve their existing private water supply.

The map below shows the estimated concentration of private water supplies per 1,000 dwellings in Scotland by Scottish Parliament Constituency.Source: Drinking Water Quality Regulator

Scotland’s private water supply users are more vulnerable to water scarcity due to a high reliance on small scale groundwater and surface water sources, and limited storage options. Supplies from springs and shallow wells are considered to be more vulnerable than boreholes.

A 2020 report by the Centre for Expertise for Waters (CREW) investigating the impacts of climate change and resilience of private water supplies highlights a growing evidence-base for water quality issues regarding small supplies which are often associated with non-compliances with microbiological and chemical quality standards.

The report further identifies that these water quality problems may be exacerbated by low water table levels due to resuspension of sediments with falling water levels, and decreased dilution of sewage discharged to rivers.

The report made 11 recommendations including:

• extending private water supply risk assessments to address climate change;
• improving drought risk indicators and early warning systems;
• developing household water storage and cost-effective connections to mains water.

A 2023 report by Consumer Scotland highlights that there is currently no single, comprehensive source of information for private water supply users to access and no single national register of private water supply users, or of those most at risk from interruption of water supply.

A research project entitled ‘“Taps Aff!” – Voicing experiences of water scarcity in rural Scotland’ explored experiences of water scarcity in rural and island communities. The project used mobile journalism methods to encourage communities to share their experiences which are highlighted in the video below.

How is the weather impacting farmers and crofters?

Agriculture is often one of the first sectors to be impacted by drought due to its dependency on the weather. A 2024 CREW report into the impact of future water scarcity on agriculture outlines that the scarcity of water for irrigation, especially during drought periods, could result in crop failures particularly for vegetables and fruits. Reduced grass growth also affects feed availability and herd productivity.

The British Geological Survey, who helped to produce the report, have commented that the data sends a warning to farmers as April and May as well as late August into September are expected to become noticeably drier, affecting crop yields and livestock gains.

This has an impact on farm and croft profitability. Whilst the costs of this year are yet to be calculated, research from WWF Scotland found that heavy snow followed by drought during 2017/18 impacted on livestock numbers and yields of key crops. The overall losses to Scottish agriculture are estimated at £161 million, equivalent to 6% of total output in 2017. The biggest impact was on the sheep sector which lost £45 million, followed by wheat (£34 million), beef (£28 million), and barley (£26 million).

A 2019 ClimateXChange report identified ways in which resilience can be increased within the agriculture sector. For example, on arable farms crops can be replaced with ones that have lower irrigation needs as well as using protected crops (in glasshouses or polytunnels) to increase efficiency.

How might the Scottish Government respond?

SEPA’s first National Water Scarcity Plan was published in 2020 and sets out “how water resources will be managed prior to and during periods of prolonged dry weather […] to ensure the correct balance is struck between protecting the environment and providing resource for human and economic activity”.

To do this, Scottish Water may propose to Ministers that they make a water shortage supply Order (under Part 7 of the Water Resources (Scotland) Act 2013) if Scottish Water believes that there is either a “serious”, or a “threat of a serious” deficiency of water supplies in an area.

These Orders permit Scottish Water to carry out various actions such as to gain access to land to abstract from an alternative source or to impose water saving measures on organisations or individuals if deemed necessary, including hosepipe bans.

The Plan goes on to explain that if prolonged dry weather continues, difficult decisions may have to be taken. Following Ministerial direction and consultation with “interested parties”, SEPA has powers to deal with emergency situations under the Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003, however it is made clear that this “action is most likely to be needed when water shortage has become widespread and severe and key water supplies have to be protected”.

The most likely action in these circumstances would be to “supplement normal drinking water sources with temporary abstractions of water from different parts of the water environment”.

The Scottish Government’s response to the most recent Parliamentary Question on this matter asking “the Scottish Government what immediate steps it is taking to respond to SEPA’s warning of early signs of water scarcity in Scotland” states that:

“SEPA, Scottish Water, Nature Scot and the National Farmers Union Scotland are all working to encourage water users to develop contingency plans to minimise their impact on the environment.

Public Water Supplies are largely operating as normal and, due to many years of strategic investment by Scottish Government and Scottish Water to strengthen resilience measures, Scottish Water are able to maintain supplies during prolonged dry periods to all parts of Scotland.”

What do we know about the impacts of climate change on water resources?

A more detailed scientific investigation – known as an ‘attribution study’ – would be required to assess if this current weather event is linked to climate change. However, instances of extreme drought in Scotland are likely to become more common with climate change.

An ongoing partnership between SEPA and researchers in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Strathclyde  has compiled and analysed over 30 years of SEPA’s water scarcity data, revealing a more complex picture. The research team have informed SPICe that results from this work to-date indicate:

• There has been no significant long-term increase or decrease in water scarcity levels (categorised as moderate or significant) over the last 30 years. Further analysis is required to confirm long-term trends which is complicated by lack of full monitoring station coverage.
• Many areas of Scotland experience persistent vulnerability to drought. Over half of SEPA’s hydrological units of assessment have experienced high water scarcity levels for at least five consecutive years (the water scarcity levels have been moderate or significant for over 25 days in summer at least five consecutive years in a row).
• There is a ‘drought divide’ in Scotland. The East consistently faces greater water stress in part due to its drier climate. West Scotland can experience water scarcity events, but these tend to be less extreme in terms of intensity, and duration. The impacts can still be significant.
• Most regions of Scotland experience highest levels of water scarcity during summer months. Local geography plays a key role in determining water scarcity levels, particularly in spring and autumn. There are records of water scarcity in winter, but these are rare / few.
• Years where extreme droughts occurred in Scotland include 1995, 2003, and 2018. In each case, the meteorological and hydrological conditions in the run up to the drought are specific – there is no general trend regarding the conditions preceding these events. That said, the new dataset has revealed that a dry winter increases the chance of there being a dry summer. Winter 2024/25 was very dry; SEPA teams were already planning for the increased risk that water scarcity levels in summer 2025 could be higher than recent years.

However, a report by NatureScot forecasts that the number of extreme drought events in Scotland is likely to increase in the future from an average of one event every 20 years (baseline period of 1981-2001), to one event every 3 years from 2021-2040.

At the same time demand for water in Scotland is expected to rise because of expected increases to population and demographic shift from western parts of Scotland to the east of the country where rainfall is lower and there are fewer available water resources.

The Scottish Government has acknowledged there is currently no legal requirement for Ministers to plan how to manage water resources to meet these challenges and has committed to review water industry policy to “assess how water, sewerage and drainage services can adapt to the impacts of climate change to avoid water scarcity through future legislation”.

An initial consultation on water, wastewater and draining policy was launched in November 2023 which sought views on “principles and considerations in developing policy for the future of the water industry in Scotland in response to the climate emergency”.

Scottish Water is also consulting on its draft long-term strategy to 2050 which recognises climate change as one of three key challenges along with population change and ageing assets. The draft Strategy forecasts that the funding needed to deliver sustainable services over the next 25 years could be approximately double what it is today (estimated cost of £50 billion).

Scottish Water is also coming to the end of its current regulatory period (2021-2027). Scottish Ministers are required to set objectives for Scottish Water for the next regulatory period from 2027-2033.

Steps are being taken to make the water industry more resilient to extreme weather associated with climate change, but much more work is required.

The Scottish Parliament will have a role to play in scrutinising how any new water legislation seeks to tackle these challenges, Scottish Minister’s objectives for Scottish Water and Scottish Water’s performance over the next regulatory period.

Damon Davies, Researcher, SPICe
Alasdair Reid, Senior Researcher, SPICe
Euan Ross, Senior Researcher, SPICe
Dr Elizabeth Lawson, SPICe Academic Fellow (Newcastle University)

Title image: Harlaw Reservoir – Pentland Hills by Jamie Wilson on flickr