Total income from farming estimates: 2018-2024 published

Scotland’s agricultural sector is projected to see a significant recovery in 2024, according to initial figures published in Total Income from Farming estimates: 2018–2024, an Accredited Official Statistics publication for Scotland.

These early estimates indicate that Total Income from Farming (TIFF)—the official measure of agricultural profitability—will rise to approximately £1.3 billion, marking an increase of £0.4 billion (49%) from the previous year. Adjusted for inflation, this reflects a 44% increase.

TIFF provides a comprehensive breakdown of farming sector profitability, incorporating the value of farm production, support payments, and operational costs. While the data for 2024 remain provisional and subject to future revisions, they offer a strong early signal of recovery after a five-year low recorded in 2023.

A key driver behind the projected increase in TIFF is a notable reduction in total costs. In 2024, farming costs are estimated at £3.8 billion, down £0.5 billion (11%) from the previous year. Significant cost reductions have been recorded for inputs such as feed and fertiliser, although prices remain elevated compared to pre-2022 levels. Marginal declines have also been noted in fuel and oil costs, interest payments, and depreciation.

Despite the shifting cost landscape, total agricultural output is projected to remain stable at around £4.6 billion in 2024. Continued high commodity prices are credited with maintaining gross output levels, supporting overall profitability in the sector.

Farm support payments remain stable at approximately £0.6 billion, largely due to the fixed rate under the Basic Payment Scheme, which does not adjust for inflation. In real terms, this represents a 5% decrease in value between 2023 and 2024.

Support payments now account for 45% of total farm profit, down significantly from 68% the previous year and below the ten-year average of 65%. This decrease reflects a growing share of profitability generated from market activities rather than government subsidy.

The agricultural sector has remained broadly profitable without support payments since 2010, though performance varies across sub-sectors. The Gross Value Added (GVA) from agriculture is projected to reach £2.2 billion in 2024, representing the sector’s economic contribution prior to accounting for labour, rent, taxes, and interest. Increases in GVA observed in recent years have been largely driven by high prices and improved profit margins across the 2020–2022 period, despite the rise in operational costs.

These 2024 figures are based on early indications and trend projections from the previous year. Final data, particularly regarding costs, will be published in subsequent updates. Nevertheless, the initial estimates provide an important reference point for assessing the sector’s contribution to Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

For further details, consult the full publication here.